Agricultural Sector: Opportunities for Self-Sufficiency and Exports
Introduction
Due to its geographical structure, climate, and abundant natural resources, Afghanistan possesses significant opportunities in the fields of agriculture and livestock. Agriculture and livestock play a distinct role in Afghanistan’s national economy and represent a major indicator of the country’s economic strength, with the potential to play a vital role in achieving self-sufficiency and boosting exports. Considering the existing challenges and obstacles, it is essential to formulate appropriate strategies and policies and to identify opportunities for the development and growth of the agriculture and livestock sector. According to information from international organizations, a large portion of Afghanistan’s population is engaged in agriculture and livestock, and agricultural products constitute 34 percent of the national gross income. Moreover, a major part of the country’s exports also consists of agricultural and livestock products. Therefore, the agriculture and livestock sector holds particular importance in the country. Experts state that through the development and expansion of this sector, Afghanistan can reach higher stages of progress.
The Role of Agriculture and Livestock in the National Economy
More than 50 percent of Afghanistan’s population lives in rural areas, where the local economy is primarily based on agriculture and livestock. According to published statistics, 61 percent of households meet their basic needs and earn their income through agriculture and livestock activities. Data from Afghanistan’s National Statistics and Information Authority indicate that for many years, agriculture, industry, and services have been the main components of Afghanistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Agriculture and livestock, traditionally regarded as key indicators of economic development in Afghanistan, also play an active role by creating 40 percent of employment opportunities.
Currently, Afghanistan faces a significant trade imbalance, with imports vastly exceeding exports. According to figures released by the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, the total trade volume in the first ten months of the solar year 1403 reached 10.732 billion dollars, while in 1402, the total trade volume was nearly 9.957 billion dollars. Of the total trade in the first ten months of 1403, 1.533 billion dollars were exports, and the remainder were imports. Similarly, of the total trade volume in 1402, 1.811 billion dollars were exports, and the rest were imports.
The three major components of GDP—industry, services, and agriculture—have not achieved desirable growth in Afghanistan due to various reasons. To increase GDP levels, Afghanistan has an urgent need to develop the agriculture sector alongside industry, given that nearly two-thirds of the population, millions of jeribs of flat land, and sufficient water resources are available to support agricultural growth and expansion.
Statistics show that in addition to forming a major share of exports, the agriculture sector leads other sectors and indicators in terms of generating employment opportunities. Although desirable investment has not yet been made in this sector, despite the challenges, agriculture still brings more foreign currency into the country than other sectors. Similarly, agriculture’s contribution to employment is significant. According to the National Statistics and Information Authority, in the solar year 1387, agriculture accounted for 78 percent, services for 16 percent, and industry for 6 percent of employment. However, in 1389 and 1390, agriculture’s share declined to 67 percent. Investment activities in the country's agriculture sector remain sluggish.
The Need for Investment in the Agricultural Sector
As an agricultural country, Afghanistan possesses abundant natural resources for agricultural and livestock production. The country has strong capacities in the production of wheat, rice, vegetables, fruits, cotton, saffron, sesame, and many other agricultural products. Likewise, in the livestock sector, there is vast potential for investment in the production of meat, dairy products, eggs, and food products derived from these. However, due to a range of issues in the past, this sector has not received adequate attention.
At the same time, the lack of infrastructure remains a challenge, which, if properly addressed, can be resolved in a short period. Considering these factors, it can be said that Afghanistan’s agriculture and livestock sector offers promising investment opportunities; however, large-scale investments have not yet taken place, and the investments made by the private sector so far have been limited.
Agriculture can contribute to the economies of developing countries in five key ways: creating employment, generating capital, bringing in foreign currency, supplying raw materials for the industrial sector, and creating a market for domestically produced industrial goods.
Despite all the challenges, Afghanistan’s agricultural sector is on a path of growth and, in some areas, is approaching self-sufficiency.
Opportunities in the Agricultural and Livestock Sector
According to some statistics, the number of individuals eligible for work in Afghanistan reaches 15 million. Of this workforce, 10 percent are employed in the industrial sector, another 10 percent in services, and the remaining 80 percent are employed in agriculture and livestock.
These figures suggest that around 12 million people are working in the agriculture and livestock sector, playing a significant role in increasing per capita income and providing sustenance for their families.
Agricultural Self-Sufficiency
Afghanistan’s agriculture holds numerous opportunities. With increased investment and the use of modern irrigation and processing systems, the country could achieve self-sufficiency and export surplus products. Several key points regarding this potential are highlighted below:
Wheat:
Wheat is considered one of the principal and essential food items for the Afghan population. In 1403 SH, wheat was cultivated on 32% of Afghanistan’s agricultural land. In recent years, persistent droughts, natural disasters, and plant pests have adversely affected wheat cultivation, similar to other agricultural products, leading to a noticeable decline in yield. However, the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock reports that in 1403 SH, wheat yields increased compared to previous years. In this year, wheat was cultivated on 2.12 million hectares of land, marking a 4.7% increase in cultivated area compared to 1402 SH.
On the other hand, wheat production in 1403 SH reached 4.83 million metric tons, reflecting a 10% increase compared to 1402 SH. Meanwhile, the country's wheat demand for 1403 SH was estimated at 6.82 million tons, indicating a shortfall of two million tons. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock, in 1403 SH, wheat was cultivated on 1.38 million hectares of irrigated land and 736,000 hectares of rain-fed land. Compared to 1402 SH, there was a 2.8% increase in irrigated wheat cultivation and an 8.2% increase in rain-fed wheat cultivation.
Considering this, if serious efforts are made in the agricultural sector, Afghanistan’s agricultural industry can meet domestic wheat needs and eliminate the necessity for imports.
Rice:
After wheat, rice is considered one of Afghanistan’s important and valuable food items, regarded as the second most crucial staple after flour. It is cultivated in provinces that have abundant water resources suitable for agriculture. In 1403, rice was cultivated in 17 provinces. Typically, rice (paddy) is sown during the months of Sawr, Jawza, and Saratan and harvested during Mizan and Aqrab.
So far, Afghanistan has not been able to meet its total rice demand domestically, leading to partial reliance on imports from abroad. However, efforts are underway to increase domestic rice production and meet most of the national demand locally. Although persistent droughts in recent years have reduced the rice cultivation area, rice was still planted in several regions in 1403, with production increasing compared to 1402.
Surveys indicate that in 1403, rice was cultivated on 129,000 hectares, a 0.4% increase compared to 1402. Rice production reached 438,000 metric tons in 1402, reflecting a 9.6% growth compared to 1403. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock, Afghanistan's population was estimated at 35.69 million in 1403, and based on this, the national rice demand is estimated at around 705,000 metric tons.
Comparing this demand with the achieved production reveals a shortage of 266,000 metric tons of rice for the year. The Islamic Emirate is striving to significantly increase rice production to reduce dependency on rice imports.
Fruits and Vegetables:
Fruits and vegetables are considered important agricultural products that play a crucial role in human health and the country's economy. Afghanistan, with its favorable climate and sufficient labor force, possesses a high capacity for vegetable production. In recent years, exports of vegetables to neighboring countries have increased during certain seasons, seen as a positive step toward economic growth.
Along with other agricultural products, Afghanistan produces sufficient vegetables, most of which are consumed domestically, while a portion is exported abroad.
In the first quarter of 1403, the value of officially recorded exports was $300.3 million, excluding smuggled and re-exported goods. Compared to the fourth quarter of 1402, recorded exports declined by 8.2% (from $327.3 million to $300.3 million).
It is worth noting that in this quarter, fresh and dried fruits accounted for 20.2% of total exports, while medicinal plants made up 16.7% of the total export value.
In the third quarter of 1403, dried and fresh fruits led among exported goods with a value of $321.9 million, followed by vegetables at $79.3 million, medicinal plants at $67.3 million, and mineral products at $35.2 million, occupying the second, third, and fourth ranks, respectively.
Saffron:
Saffron is among Afghanistan’s most valuable agricultural products, enjoying international recognition. This crop has been cultivated in many provinces of Afghanistan for many years, providing farmers with considerable income.
According to official figures, in the first nine months of 1403, Afghanistan exported 42,200 kilograms of saffron worth approximately $29.588 million to India, Spain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Australia, Turkey, and other countries.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock states that in 1403, saffron was cultivated on 9,500 hectares of land, yielding 40 metric tons.
In 1403, saffron cultivation expanded to 30 provinces and has been promoted as an alternative to opium poppy cultivation.
Among the provinces, Herat leads saffron production, reportedly accounting for 90% of the country's total saffron yield.
According to experts, if support for saffron farmers continues, Afghanistan can achieve significant income from this crop.
Globally, Afghanistan is recognized as the second-largest saffron producer, and over consecutive years, Afghan saffron has consistently earned first place in international taste competitions organized by the International Taste Institute.
Cotton:
Cotton is another valuable agricultural product of Afghanistan, used domestically and exported to international markets.
In 1403, the National Statistics and Information Authority conducted Afghanistan’s first cotton survey across 15 provinces, revealing a production of 159,000 metric tons.
Survey data indicates a 30% increase in cotton production compared to 1402.
The highest cotton production was recorded in Helmand province (80,000 metric tons), followed by Balkh (over 34,000 metric tons), Kandahar (over 11,000 metric tons), Jawzjan (nearly 11,000 metric tons), and Nangarhar (over 5,000 metric tons).
Using remote sensing technology, which involves interpreting satellite imagery, the areas under cotton cultivation were mapped for the first time in 1403, showing that cotton was planted across 105,000 hectares.
According to this survey, cotton was cultivated in 17 provinces in 1403, marking a 12% increase in cultivated area compared to 1402.
Helmand had the largest area under cotton cultivation (50,000 hectares), while Kapisa had the smallest (66 hectares).
Cotton is one of Afghanistan’s major export commodities; in 1402 alone, cotton and cottonseeds worth $273 million were exported abroad.
Conclusion
Afghanistan is considered a climatically suitable country for agriculture, and a large portion of its population is engaged in this sector. The more this sector develops, the greater the quantity and quality of agricultural products achieved. Afghanistan holds significant opportunities for self-sufficiency in agriculture and livestock, which can be realized through the implementation of appropriate policies, investment in infrastructure, training and capacity-building programs for farmers and livestock owners, and the development and modernization of irrigation systems. The country can thus make effective use of its potential capacities. Afghanistan has now approached self-sufficiency in several agricultural sectors, and in the current year, considerable yields have been achieved in the production of wheat, rice, and vegetables.
If the agricultural sector continues to expand and effective policies are implemented, Afghanistan will be able to produce most of its agricultural needs domestically and will also have the capacity to export surplus products to foreign markets, particularly to neighboring countries.
Undoubtedly, the private sector plays a critical role in this regard and must be provided with the necessary facilities to invest across various areas.
The Islamic Emirate has created easy investment conditions and numerous facilities for investors to encourage them to contribute to fulfilling domestic needs and creating employment opportunities through their investments.